1dma.ru βΊ article βΊ what-is-the-dealers-average-hand-in-.

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He's always preaching to me that blackjack players "don't want to know how the For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because playersβ.

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This page assumes the dealer already peeked for blackjack, of the dealer forming any given final hand according to the dealer's up-card. The next table shows the average dealer score, assuming the dealer does not bust.

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What are the odds against winning seven hands of blackjack in a row? Under typical Vegas rules (6-deck, dealer hits soft 17) the house edge by always.

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Quote: weaselmanThe average value is(17+18+19+20+21)/5 = 19Something tells me, you meant to ask about the expected value, not the.

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How many cards are dealt per hand? The books tell us that the average hand in Blackjack (including the dealer hands) contains about cards. I thought I.

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This page assumes the dealer already peeked for blackjack, of the dealer forming any given final hand according to the dealer's up-card. The next table shows the average dealer score, assuming the dealer does not bust.

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He's always preaching to me that blackjack players "don't want to know how the For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because playersβ.

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Blackjack, formerly also Black Jack and Vingt-Un, is the American member of a global family of If both dealer and player receive a blackjack or any other hands with the However, blackjack players using basic strategy will lose less than 1% of their total wagered amount with average luck, which is a substantially lower.

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He's always preaching to me that blackjack players "don't want to know how the For starters, the average amount of money that you win on the winning hands is Unlike a player bust, the dealer often wins when she busts, because playersβ.

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Determine the probability that the player will resplit to 4 hands. That column seemed to put the mathematics to that "feeling" a player can get. Repeat step 3 but multiply by 3 instead of 2. I hope this answers your question. Add values from steps 4, 8, and The hardest part of all this is step 3. The fewer the decks and the greater the number of cards the more this is true. These expected values consider all the numerous ways the hand can play out. However there are other ways you get four aces in the same hand, for example the last card might be an 8 or 9. Go through all ranks, except 8, subtract that card from the deck, play out a hand with that card and an 8, determine the expected value, and multiply by 2. It depends whether there is a shuffle between the blackjacks. Multiply this dot product by the probability from step 2. The standard deviation of one hand is 1. However if you were going to cheat it would be much better to remove an ace, which increases the house edge by 0. Let n be the number of decks. If you were to add a card as the dealer you should add a 5, which increases the house edge by 0. So standing is the marginally better play. For the non-card counter it may be assumed that the odds are the same in each new round. If the probability of a blackjack is p then the probability of not getting any blackjacks in 10 hands is 1- 1-p For example in a six deck game the answer would be 1- 0. Multiply dot product from step 11 by probability in step 9. Determine the probability that the player will resplit to 3 hands. There are 24 sevens in the shoe. Here is the exact answer for various numbers of decks. This is not even a marginal play. Putting aside some minor effects of deck composition, the dealer who pulled a 5 to a 16 the last five times in a row would be just as likely to do it the next time as the dealer who had been busting on 16 for several hours. Resplitting up to four hands is allowed. Multiply dot product from step 7 by probability in step 5. So the probability of winning six in a row is 0. If you want to deviate from the basic strategy here are some borderline plays: 12 against 3, 12 against 4, 13 against 2, 16 against Deviating on these hands will cost you much less. What you have experienced is likely the result of some very bad losing streaks. I have a very ugly subroutine full of long formulas I determine using probability trees.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} My question though is what does that really mean? The best play for a billion hands is the best play for one hand. It would take about 5 years playing blackjack 40 hours a week before this piece of advice saved the player one unit. Expected Values for 3-card 16 Vs. Thanks for your kind words. It took me years to get the splitting pairs correct myself. You ask a good question for which there is no firm answer. For each rank determine the probability of that rank, given that the probability of another 8 is zero. Take another 8 out of the deck. What is important is that you play your cards right. Unless you are counting cards you have the free will to bet as much as you want. There is no sound bite answer to explain why you should hit. Cindy of Gambling Tools was very helpful. Because the sum of a large number of random variables always will approach a bell curve we can use the central limit theorem to get at the answer. In that case, the probability of a win, given a resolved bet, is The probability of winning n hands is a row is 0. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}This is a typical question one might encounter in an introductory statistics class. For how to solve the problem yourself, see my MathProblems. I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. When the dealer stands on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about When the dealer hits on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about According to my blackjack appendix 4 , the probability of a net win is However, if we skip ties, the probability is So, the probability of a four wins in a row is 0. I recently replaced my blackjack appendix 4 with some information about the standard deviation which may help. Repeat step 3 but multiply by 4 instead of 2, and this time consider getting an 8 as a third card, corresponding to the situation where the player is forced to stop resplitting. Steve from Phoenix, AZ. From my blackjack appendix 7 we see that each 9 removed from a single deck game increases the house edge by 0. Determine the probability that the player will not get a third eight on either hand. It is more a matter of degree, the more you play the more your results will approach the house edge. According to my blackjack appendix 9H the expected return of standing is So my hitting you will save 6. Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way? To test the most likely case to favor hitting, 8 decks and only 3 cards, I ran every possible situation through my combinatorial program. If I'm playing for fun then I leave the table when I'm not having fun any longer. Streaks, such as the dealer drawing a 5 to a 16, are inevitable but not predictable. If there were a shuffle between hands the probability would increase substantially. I would have to do a computer simulation to consider all the other combinations. Following this rule will result in an extra unit once every hands. According to my blackjack appendix 4 , the probability of an overall win in blackjack is I'm going to assume you wish to ignore ties for purposes of the streak. Besides every once in awhile throwing down a bigger bet just adds to the excitement and for some reason it seems logical that if you have lost a string of hands you are "due" for a win. Thanks for the kind words. The probability of this is 1 in 5,,, For the probability for any number of throws from 1 to , please see my craps survival tables. Here is how I did it. When I said the probability of losing 8 hands in a row is 1 in I meant that starting with the next hand the probability of losing 8 in a row is 1 in The chances of 8 losses in a row over a session are greater the longer the session. It depends on the number of decks. It may also be the result of progressive betting or mistakes in strategy. Probability of Blackjack Decks Probability 1 4. I have no problem with increasing your bet when you get a lucky feeling. All of this assumes flat betting, otherwise the math really gets messy. You are forgetting that there are two possible orders, either the ace or the ten can be first. From my section on the house edge we find the standard deviation in blackjack to be 1. So, the best card for the player is the ace and the best for the dealer is the 5. Your question however could be rephrased as, "what is the value of the ace, given that the other card is not a ten. Take the dot product of the probability and expected value over each rank. In general the variation in the mean is inversely proportional to the square root of the number of hands you play. Any basic statistics book should have a standard normal table which will give the Z statistic of 0. Since this question was submitted, a player held the dice for rolls on May 23, in Atlantic City. There are cards remaining in the two decks and 32 are tens. Blackjack is not entirely a game of independent trials like roulette, but the deck is not predisposed to run in streaks. The following table displays the results. Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? As I always say all betting systems are equally worthless so flying by the seat of your pants is just as good as flat betting over the long term.