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Of the true even money bets, the best game to use a match play on in the Player bet in baccarat. Yes, the winning 6 is a sucker bet. First it is very possible that they are shuffling after every hand. My advice is to use the match play on the Player bet in baccarat. There are some other strategy changes but I never worked out a list. Skipping hands is fine, in fact not playing at all is the best possible strategy. At true counts greater than 17,, the Player is the better bet. If optimal strategy is compared to optimal strategy then craps is better. Just bet on the banker every time. Here are the values to assign each rank for counting the Player bet, from my blackjack appendix 2. As I state in my pai gow poker section the probability of a banker win is As player the expected return is.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} In the event of a push, the player gets to keep the match play coupon. Thus, the house edge on the player bet is 1. The probability of the banker winning is So the house edge would be It is more accurate to divide by the exact number of cards remaining. I address the vulnerability to card counting in my baccarat appendix 2. All betting systems are flawed. It usually takes a big loss to possibly convince a believer in any particular betting systems to stop. The probability of the same thing on the player is 0. My webmaster Michael Bluejay is a loyal Mac user and has a helpful page about Macintosh casino games. If you want to prove otherwise I would suggest keeping track of the cards and putting the results through statistical tests. This decreases the value of the Match Play itself by 2. That has a probability of winning of The value of a Match Play on the Player bet is For the person with no casino gambling experience who puts an emphasis on something easy to play I would start with baccarat. Even if they do penetrate into the shoe I doubt they play through the entire thing. I speculate that any bias would only show up over millions of hands. If the player accompanies a match play coupon with a real even money wager then the match play will be converted to a like amount of cash if the player wins. Thanks for the compliment. So the final answer is that the probability of a difference of 29 or more is. Likewise, the expected return on the player bet is. The laws of mathematics state that the more hands are dealt the more the actual return will approach the theoretical return. So there was no need to devise a more practical count. There is more information available about the folly of the Martingale in my section on betting systems. Whether the player wins or loses he will lose the match play coupon. He was trying to show that for all practical purposes baccarat was not countable, even for a computer perfect counter. Then you'll have to make a half point correction for a binomial distribution and look up the Z statistic in a standard normal table this step is left to the reader. It would be very unlikely to go 75 hands without a tie. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}First, I'm going to assume that you are not counting ties. This is something often found in casino fun books. However it is better to use in baccarat than roulette, just because of the lower house edge. The probability of a banker win, given that there wasn't a tie, is 0. You're confusing the probability of winning the bet with having a positive expectation. The player's loss is the casinos gain. The average number of cards per hand is 4. From my baccarat section we see the probability of a player win is From what I know of the business the major software companies deal the cards in a fair and random way. This is a close variation of the Martingale betting system, in which the player doubles after every loss. In other words, you mean 75 bets resolved. Assuming 15 burn cards, a six-deck baccarat shoe would have about 60 hands. The expected number of banker wins out of 75 bets resolved is The standard deviation is the square root of the product of 75, the probability of a banker win, and the probability of a player win. Hitting has an expected loss of However, standing has an expected loss of There is no easy explanation I can give why hitting is better. I can't help but say that you can just walk over to a blackjack table and have a much lower house edge with basic strategy. To make a long story short, no, baccarat is not countable unless you use a computer. Overall hitting is better of two bad plays. The true count is the running count divided by the number of decks remaining. This makes the banker bet a negative expectation bet. Doubling after a loss is also not going to help. Your results are not the result of a biased random number generator but of both luck and a progressive betting system. The probability of the banker having a winning 6 is 5. This would be a bad play. The cards do not have a memory. Briefly, the best card for the Player is 4, and for the Banker is 6. For example, my blackjack appendix 9B shows the return both ways by playing 10 and 6 cards against a dealer 7. I have a whole page on the topic of card counting in baccarat. The probability that the banker will win is So the house still has a thin 0. The probability of the player winning 8 times in a row is 0. The standard deviation is thus 4. Waiting for streaks of four in a row is not going to help. Thanks for the nice words. Your question also allowed for the possibility of the banker winning 23 or fewer times also a difference of 29 more more which has a probability of. If used in blackjack, the Match Play will usually only pay even money. I already address commission free baccarat in my baccarat section. I show that if the true count exceeds 17, then the Player bet house edge is reduced to 1. The expected player return per unit wagered on the banker is. Also keep in mind you could win a hand late in the series and still come out behind because of the commission. For personal play, it should be quite fair. You have to consider everything that can happen, weight it by its probability, and take the sum. The best you can do is baccarat is bet on the banker at a house edge of 1. The Banker is baccarat is not a positive expectation bet. I would recommend betting on the banker every time. It depends on how the games are played. However, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Over the long run, you will do no better nor worse than the flat bettor or user of any other system. So the probability that the next 8 hands will be banker win, skipping ties, is 0. The Martingale is dangerous on every game and in the long run will never win. The house edge on the banker is The probability of a single banker win is 0. Progressive systems like yours usually do when but with occasional large losses. See my blacklist for more about that. Usually, the Martingale player will win but occasionally he will have more consecutive losses than he can handle and suffer a major loss. The final answer is that the probability of the banker getting 52 or more wins is. However, mathematically speaking, it doesn't make any difference when they shuffle.